Ipicture of greg abbott12/25/2022 He’s probably the most famous challenger you could come up with in the state of Texas.” “Beto is kind of like an incumbent in the sense that he’s very well known. And so the expected return from TV advertisements isn’t going to be very good, because people already know him,” Brace said. Abbott and O’Rourke have name recognition. But the benefits of both candidates running ads is a less effective than other races because Gov. Abbott might be spending so much money because the margins are a little too close for comfort, and he wants to win big. And so I think that escalates spending on both sides.”īrace said Gov. But if we spend, we can hold off the tide. For Republicans, it’s like the tide is coming. “And so I think for Democrats, it’s tantalizing to think that this is the year and if we just spend some money, it’ll happen. “Texas is it is a red state that’s threatened to go blue for a quarter century,” said Paul Brace, another political science professor at Rice University. That means they have to shell out cash for ads in two top-10 markets, Dallas and Houston, in other mid-size media markets, and in rural areas. At the same time, they’re trying to reach voters across the entire state. And as a result, the overall impact of television on turnout and vote decisions is relatively modest, as long as the campaigns are relatively equally matched, which is what we have in Texas this cycle.”Įxperts suggest the campaigns are spending money simply because they have so much. It’s kind of like an arms race: One side does it, the other side matches it, and they cancel each other out. And really, most of the effects of these ads wash out. “Beto is not going to get drowned out by Abbott, having maybe three or four thousand more ads than him in any reporting cycle. “As long as O’Rourke stays within, say 20 or 30% of what Abbott’s doing, he’s fine,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. Almost 3,000 more pro-GOP ads ran than pro-Dem ads. In a two-week period in September, ads for the governor’s race ran more than 14,000 times. New numbers show that Texas is running more TV ads than any other state when comparing gubernatorial races. Greg Abbott is going head-to-head with his democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke.
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